Skip to content
Latest updates

Market Intelligence Digest

13th October 2026

Policy Updates

Kenya Article 6 Export Cap

Kenya’s decision to cap internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) at 10 MtCO₂e through 2030 reflects a broader shift toward tighter national control of carbon exports. Rather than allowing unrestricted international transfers, Kenya is prioritising its own climate commitments and treating Article 6 authorisations as a limited national resource. For smallholder-focused carbon projects, this means access to international compliance markets will increasingly depend on securing government approval, with competition likely intensifying among carbon project developers. The policy signals a future in which carbon market participation is determined as much by alignment with national climate objectives as by the quality of emissions reductions generated. Read more

Agricultural Price-Support Systems Under Pressure

From cocoa in West Africa to staple crops in India and the Philippines, governments are struggling to maintain agricultural price-support mechanisms amid fiscal constraints and increasingly volatile commodity markets. While these schemes have historically protected farmers from market shocks, rising costs and global price swings are exposing their limitations. The emerging narrative is a gradual shift away from state-led income protection and toward greater exposure of farmers to market forces. As a result, resilience strategies such as diversification, climate adaptation, private-sector market linkages, crop insurance, and alternative income streams are becoming increasingly important for safeguarding rural livelihoods.

India Restores E-2W Subsidies Under PM E-Drive

India’s temporary lapse and subsequent restoration of electric two-wheeler subsidies highlights both the continuing importance and the declining centrality of public incentives in EV market growth. The government’s decision to extend support through 2028 provides manufacturers and consumers with short-term certainty and reaffirms its commitment to electrification. However, lower subsidy levels and the policy disruption itself reinforce a growing reality: long-term market growth will increasingly depend on affordability, financing solutions, operating cost savings, and product quality rather than government subsidies alone. Read More

Rwanda Mandates E-Motorcycle Battery Interoperability

Rwanda’s battery interoperability mandate represents one of the most significant regulatory interventions in the global battery-swapping sector. By requiring compatibility across operators, the country is seeking to transform battery-swapping infrastructure into a shared utility rather than a collection of competing proprietary networks. The regulation could reduce rider lock-in, increase consumer confidence, and improve infrastructure utilisation. More broadly, it shifts competition away from ownership of battery standards and toward service quality, pricing, reliability, and customer experience. Read More

Industry Events & Trends

Transporters
Battery Smart raises $19.5 million Series C at $430 million valuation

Indian EV battery-swapping startup Battery Smart has raised $19.5 million in a Series C round led by existing backer Rising Tide Ventures. Rising Tide Ventures invested $11.8 million, while Ecosystem Integrity Fund and Blume Ventures invested $6.65 million and $3.4 million respectively. Battery Smart’s latest funding round reinforces a growing investor conviction that energy infrastructure may ultimately be more valuable than vehicle manufacturing in the EV ecosystem. Read More

ARC Ride raises $33.3 million

ARC Ride’s funding round highlights increasing investor appetite for African battery-swapping infrastructure and battery-as-a-service business models. Investors appear to be betting that solving energy access challenges will accelerate vehicle adoption faster than focusing solely on vehicle deployment. The planned expansion across multiple African markets demonstrates growing confidence that battery-swapping networks can become foundational infrastructure for commercial transport electrification across the continent. Read More

SUN Mobility launches Open Battery-Swapping network in Kenya

Global battery swapping technology company SUN Mobility has launched its open-architecture ecosystem in Kenya in partnership with Vivo Energy, marking the country as the springboard for a continent-wide rollout of the platform. SUN Mobility’s deployment of an open-architecture battery-swapping platform in Kenya represents a potentially important evolution in EV infrastructure. By creating shared energy infrastructure that supports multiple manufacturers, the model reduces duplication, lowers capital requirements, and may accelerate market growth. The initiative reflects a broader industry trend toward platform-based infrastructure where batteries, energy services, financing, and vehicle access become separated, enabling more efficient scaling of electric mobility ecosystems. Read More

Spiro and Yadea Partnership

Spiro and Yadea  are joining forces to accelerate the transition to affordable and accessible electric mobility across the continent. The aim is to combine Yadea’s global manufacturing and technology capabilities with Spiro’s local infrastructure and operational network in Africa. The partnership between Spiro and Yadea illustrates the increasing maturity of Africa’s electric mobility sector. Rather than focusing solely on vehicle deployment, the collaboration combines manufacturing, battery-swapping infrastructure, operational expertise, and local vehicle adaptation into a single ecosystem. The development suggests that future winners in the African EV market will be those capable of integrating hardware, energy infrastructure, financing, and local market knowledge rather than relying on vehicle technology alone. Read More

Jupiter Electric Mobility and Kosh Partnership

Jupiter Electric Mobility (JEM) has partnered with Kosh, the digital lending platform powered by NFCPL, to provide instant and paperless financing solutions across its dealership network, aiming to make electric commercial vehicle purchases faster and more accessible for customers. The JEM-Kosh partnership highlights a recurring lesson emerging across developing-country EV markets: financing remains one of the biggest barriers to adoption. By embedding digital credit into the vehicle purchase process, the companies are addressing affordability challenges directly. The broader significance is that financing innovation may be just as important as technological innovation in accelerating EV uptake among commercial operators, microentrepreneurs, and small businesses. Read More

Egypt-CATL Battery Manufacturing Partnership

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) has signed a cooperation agreement with BME (Battery Manufacturing in Egypt), an Egyptian battery manufacturer, to support battery pack assembly and production in Egypt. Under the agreement, BME plans to source battery cells from CATL, while CATL will support BME with battery pack technology licensing, production equipment and technical training. Egypt’s partnership with CATL signals a shift from being solely an EV consumer market toward becoming part of the clean-energy manufacturing value chain. Although the initiative initially focuses on battery pack assembly rather than cell production, it demonstrates growing interest in localising segments of battery manufacturing and developing domestic industrial capabilities. The project reflects a broader trend of African countries seeking to capture more value from the energy transition through industrialisation rather than merely importation. Read More

Bounce and ONDC Partnership

Electric mobility company, Bounce, partnered with the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) to strengthen India’s open logistics infrastructure and expand sustainable, EV-led last-mile delivery. The partnership will integrate Bounce’s electric mobility and fleet operations capabilities with ONDC’s Open Delivery Protocol (ODP), enabling merchants and brands to access multiple logistics providers through a single integration. The Bounce-ONDC collaboration demonstrates how electrification is increasingly converging with digital-commerce ecosystems. Rather than treating EVs as standalone mobility assets, the model integrates electric fleets into an open logistics network that matches delivery demand and transport supply. The development highlights how future growth in electric mobility may be driven as much by platform business models and digital infrastructure as by advances in vehicle technology. Read More

M-KOPA Expands into Electric Tuk-Tuks

M-KOPA’s move into electric tuk-tuk financing reinforces the growing importance of asset-finance models in accelerating EV adoption among low-income transport operators. The expansion reflects mounting evidence that affordability and access to credit are often more significant barriers than the technology itself. The company’s success suggests that future EV adoption in emerging markets will likely depend on innovative ownership models that allow operators to pay for vehicles over time using income generated from those assets. Read More

Microentrepreneurs
Moniepoint’s 2025 impact report

Moniepoint, in its latest report, stated that it disbursed over $700 million in loans to MSMEs in 2025, and three out of four merchants who got loans through the platform were accessing formal business credit for the first time. It also reported that loan recipients saw a 36 percent increase in average transaction value, and lending to women-owned businesses grew by more than 300 percent. Its model assesses creditworthiness using transaction data instead of collateral. Read More

Short-term catalytic financing will help Koolboks fulfill a 500-unit order

Miller Center Capital, the impact investing arm of Miller Center for Global Impact at Santa Clara University, has provided short-term catalytic financing to Koolboks, a social enterprise designing and distributing solar-powered refrigeration units for markets where grid electricity is unreliable or expensive. The investment was made in partnership with fund manager Beneficial Returns. The financing will help Koolboks fulfill a large purchase order from a leading multinational FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) company that will distribute solar-powered chest freezers to microfranchise vendors in Ghana. Read More

bPOWERd expands into Nigeria with solar battery rental Renewable energy tech startup

bPOWERd, has established operational presence across seven initial sites in Lagos, Nigeria. bPOWERd is a fast-growing energy startup backed by bp, offering affordable pay-per-use solar-charged battery rentals for households and small businesses. Founded in South Africa, the company is focused on expanding access to reliable and flexible backup power through a scalable rental model that removes the high upfront costs typically associated with traditional energy alternatives. Since its launch in South Africa in 2025, bPOWERd has facilitated more than 125,000 battery rentals within its first year of operations, highlighting growing demand for accessible clean energy solutions across underserved markets. Read More

Clean Cooking in Africa 2026

In a new report, Clean Cooking in Africa: Progress Report 2026, the IEA offers a new stocktake of progress and remaining gaps across sub-Saharan Africa. The report assesses progress towards universal access across key dimensions, examines the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and tracks delivery of the financial and policy commitments made at the 2024 Summit. Read More

Smallholder Farmers
Côte d’Ivoire’s $50 Million Climate-Smart Agriculture Programme

The Green Climate Fund’s approval of a large-scale climate-resilience investment in Côte d’Ivoire demonstrates the growing shift from climate-smart agriculture pilots toward national-scale implementation. The project combines climate adaptation, emissions reduction, productivity improvement, and food-security objectives within a single programme. It reflects increasing recognition among funders that climate resilience for smallholder farmers requires integrated interventions that address both environmental and livelihood challenges simultaneously. Read More

Ethiopia’s First Soil Carbon Payments to Farmers

Ethiopia’s ETH-Soil programme provides one of the strongest examples to date of soil carbon markets delivering direct payments to smallholder farmers. While the payments themselves are relatively modest, the more important finding is that carbon finance can successfully complement improvements in productivity, soil health, and input-cost reduction. The initiative suggests that the most viable smallholder carbon models will likely be those that generate multiple benefits instead of relying on carbon revenues alone. Read More

African Agritech Investment Is Shifting Toward Infrastructure

Agritech funding in Africa fell to $168.1 million in 2025 from $206.9 million in 2024, a fraction of the sector’s $776 million peak in 2022. Briter Bridges counts $118 million in agritech equity for 2025, up 72% year-on-year, with East Africa taking 41% of deal value and half the top deals going to processing and cold-chain logistics rather than farm-gate apps. The decline in agritech funding masks a more important structural change: investors are increasingly prioritising physical agricultural infrastructure over digital farm-management solutions. Capital is flowing toward cold chains, processing facilities, logistics systems, storage, and energy-enabled agricultural services that address fundamental bottlenecks in agricultural value chains. This suggests growing recognition that raising farmer incomes may depend less on improving farm-level decisions and more on improving how agricultural products move, are stored, processed, and reach markets. Read More

Uganda’s Coffee Boom Faces an EUDR Compliance Crunch

Uganda, now Africa’s largest coffee exporter after overtaking Ethiopia in 2025, is facing a significant test as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) comes into force from December 2026. With Europe accounting for 62% of Uganda’s coffee exports, the requirement to trace coffee back to individual farm plots poses a major compliance challenge, as only 1.6 million of the country’s estimated 2.8 million coffee farms had been mapped as of March 2026. The urgency of the issue was underscored by September discussions between leading global traders Neumann and Volcafe and Ugandan exporters on EUDR readiness. At the same time, declining export volumes and drought-related production risks suggest Uganda’s coffee sector must navigate both regulatory and climate pressures to maintain access to its most important export market. Read More

Kenya’s Tea Sector Balances Strong Prices with Growing Farmer Frustration

Kenya’s tea sector is experiencing a mixed outlook, with smallholder factories under the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) benefiting from strong auction prices driven by lower volumes following pruning activities. In mid-September, KTDA-managed factories earned approximately KSh 914 million in a single week, with top-performing factories securing prices above US$3.50 per kilogram. The recent distribution of subsidised fertiliser is expected to support higher production in the coming year. However, the sector continues to face headwinds. Exporters argue that a new tea levy of KSh 2.28 per kilogram is dampening demand, while smallholder tea sales through the Mombasa auction fell to 128.6 million kg in the first half of the year, down from 138.8 million kg during the same period a year earlier. Despite reforms that increased average farmer payments from KSh 35 per kg in 2021 to KSh 64 and KSh 56 in 2024 and 2025 respectively, many farmers remain dissatisfied with earnings, highlighting ongoing concerns over value distribution and sector governance.

White Revolution 2.0 continues to drive cooperative expansion

The Government of India is accelerating implementation of White Revolution 2.0, with a focus on expanding organized milk procurement, strengthening dairy cooperatives, and bringing previously uncovered villages into formal dairy markets. Government statements indicate that thousands of new dairy cooperative societies have already been formed and strengthened, with the broader objective of increasing cooperative milk procurement by 50% over five years. Read More

Industry Analysis & Insights

The battery-swapping industry is splitting into two models

The most important development from a transport perspective is a contest over market structure, although the updates present it as separate news items. On one side is the open, shared infrastructure model. Rwanda has mandated interoperability. SUN Mobility and Vivo Energy launched a Kenyan network serving more than ten manufacturers. ONDC’s open delivery protocol applies the same logic to logistics. On the other side is the vertically integrated model. Spiro and Yadea are building a closed system in which Spiro controls vehicle design, the battery network and the rider relationship. ARC Ride is raising $33.3m to build network density in its own system.

This matters because the two models answer the same question differently: where should value sit? In a closed system, the operator earns returns by locking riders in. That lock-in is what made proprietary networks financeable in the first place. Rwanda’s mandate removes it. Operators there will have to compete on price, reliability and station coverage rather than switching costs, which is good for riders. But it could lower expected returns for companies that financed battery inventories on the assumption they would keep their customers.

The open question going forward is whether other African regulators follow Rwanda. Kenya is the one to watch, since both models now operate there side by side. If Rwanda’s two-year transition goes smoothly, it becomes a template. If it slows investment, other regulators will likely take note. Investors appear to be backing both approaches, which suggests the industry has not yet settled on an answer.

Financing, not the vehicle, is now the main commercial bottleneck

Four separate items point the same way. M-KOPA is moving from motorcycles into tuk-tuks. JEM and Kosh are offering loans approved in minutes at the dealership. Battery Smart’s battery-as-a-service model means riders don’t have to buy the battery. The India adoption analysis names affordability and financing as the next limiting factors.The M-KOPA figure puts this in concrete terms. A daily saving of KSh530 means the electric vehicle is already cheaper to run than a petrol one. What stops riders is the upfront cost, not the running cost. For a rider paid daily in cash, a vehicle that saves money each day is still out of reach without a financing structure that matches that daily income.

This implies the scarcest capability in the sector is credit underwriting for informal-income borrowers. Companies that combine asset finance, collections data and battery access may end up capturing more value than the vehicle manufacturers do.

Governments are shifting risk onto smallholders and rationing access to carbon markets

As governments reduce market interventions and price-support mechanisms, smallholder farmers are likely to face greater income volatility, increasing the importance of diversified revenue streams. Carbon finance is often positioned as one such source of supplementary income, but growing restrictions on carbon credit exports suggest its availability may become more constrained and competitive.

At the same time, governments are increasingly treating carbon credits as a strategic national resource rather than an open-market commodity. This creates competition for limited carbon allocations between agricultural projects, clean cooking initiatives, and e-mobility businesses, potentially reducing the reliability of carbon revenues across sectors. The implication is that carbon income is most valuable when it supplements business models that already deliver productivity and income gains, rather than serving as the primary economic justification for participation.

Investors are backing physical infrastructure over software

The agritech funding data and the e-mobility deals show the same pattern. Agritech funding fell to $168.1m in 2025, but the money that is still flowing is going to post-harvest processing, cold chains and energy-enabled services rather than farm-management apps. In transport, the largest deals (ARC Ride’s $33.3m, Battery Smart’s $19.5m, Egypt’s battery facility) are also for physical energy infrastructure.

The common thread is that investors now prefer tangible assets with measurable use and revenue over software that depends on changing smallholder behaviour. For organisations raising capital, a proposal framed around infrastructure utilisation and cash flow will likely find more support than one framed around a digital platform. The exception is when the digital layer coordinates physical assets, as with ONDC.

Upcoming Industry Events

SOCAP26

12 – 14 October
Chicago, USA

Africa Energy Week

12 – 16 October
Cape Town, South Africa

Energy Transition Summit

19 – 20 October
London, UK

Global Off-Grid Solar Forum & Expo (GOGSFE) 2026

27 – 29 October
Kigali, Rwanda

GIIN Impact Forum

27 – 29 October
Amsterdam, Netherlands

COP 31

9 – 20 November
Antalya, Turkiye

Enlit Europe

10 – 12 November
Vienna, Austria

Agritechnica 2026

12 – 18 November
Hannover, Germany

SuperReturn Africa

1 – 3 December
Cape Town, South Africa